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Outlook for 4/12/11

by EdgePlayer on 04/12/11

On a year-to-date basis, market is suggesting the formation of an upper distribution area between 1338 and the 1240 area. Double top with lower high is in, 1240 area is now the  long term target. YTD TPO profile

On a month-to-date/week-to-date basis 1311 is the attractor (o/n market is already there).  From there, 1300 is the downside attractor and 1320 is the upside attractor. MTD/WTD volume profile

On a daily basis, the market is poised to open at the bottom of the down channel, so look for a bounce (especially since there is also an NVPOC in the same area). 30min volume profile

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Outlook for 4/8/11

by EdgePlayer on 04/07/11

Regardless of whether you think today's sell-off was  the result of over-anxious algos responding to Japan's 7.4 aftershock or something more fundamental like oil at 110, watch for a breakout of the triangle formed by today's price action for clues as to the markets next direction.  If it breaks up and stays in the up channel of the last few days, the year-to-date high of 1338 is the likely target.  If it breaks down, the first target is likely the the gap at 1319.50.

WTD/MTD

30 Min

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OutLook for 4/6/11

by EdgePlayer on 04/06/11

Market now poised to test year-to-date high on continuous contract at 1338.    The ellipse on the YTD profile shows shows that  the recent sell off stopped just short of the  single TPO area at 1241 on continuous contract.  This suggest the formation of an upper distribution area. If so, expect tests of the YTD high to fail.

WTD chart indicates price is in a up channel and confirms a test off 1338 likely.  Watch pullbacks to support for possible long entries that anticipate the test.

 

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Outlook for 4/1/11

by EdgePlayer on 03/31/11

Today was an inside day so expecting b/o tomorrow of two-day range.  However, tomorrow could be a much bigger day.  The market  is at the top of the month-to-date (MTD) profile so a decision to go higher or to retreat back into the MTD range must be made.  Tomorrows employment report and the traditional directionality of the first day of the month  increase the odds that tomorrow is the decision day.  Watch the b/o of the two-day range for clues on direction. 

MTD/WTD Volume Profile

OutLook for 3/30/11

by EdgePlayer on 03/29/11

Market is breaking out of 3 day range after failed break down.  This is usually a pretty bullish sign.  I am looking for a probe higher at least as big as the probe lower, if not more.   Since today is was a trend day I would expect tomorrow to be a consolidation day.  At this time I show support  at  1315,  1311.75. 1308.75 and resistance at 1323.25.

MTD/WTD volume profile