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Outlook for 3/14/11

by EdgePlayer on 03/13/11

Friday the market closed the gap at 1278.75 (during globex) and much to the chagrin of shorts (myself included) squeezed back up to almost the lower trend line of the outer triangle.  Eventually, the market will have to decide whether to get back inside the outer triangle (at about 1305) or put in a lower low  ( below 1278.75).  However, since Tues is FOMC day  I am expecting tomorrow to be a narrow range day and probably an inside day.  Tuesday the market could make the decision to go higher or lower.  Inspite of what Market Profile tells us,  the market can do anything it wants  -- always be ready to adjust your beliefs when the market does not confirm them.

MTD/WTD Volume Profile

Outlook for 3/14/11

by EdgePlayer on 03/13/11

Friday the market closed the gap at 1278.75 (during globex) and much to the chagrin of shorts (myself included) squeezed back up to almost the lower trend line of the outer triangle.  Eventually, the market will have to decide whether to get back inside the outer triangle (at about 1305) or put in a lower low  ( below 1278.75).  However, since Tues is FOMC day  I am expecting tomorrow to be a narrow range day and probably an inside day.  Tuesday the market could make the decision to go higher or lower.  Inspite of what Market Profile tells us,  the market can do anything it wants  -- always be ready to adjust your beliefs when the market does not confirm them.

MTD/WTD Volume Profile

Outlook for 3/11/11

by EdgePlayer on 03/10/11

The market broke down out the outer triangle today, earlier than expected.  Since it made an attempt to get back inside the lower trendline of the triangle and failed, I think we can expect multple down days  before selling subsides. The immediate target I am looking for is a fill of the gap from 1284.75 to 1278.75, however, the weekly S1 at 1281 could be strong support.  After the gap is filled the next support is 1272.50 and 1265.50.  Will re-evaluate before tomorrows open.

MTD/WTD volume profiles

Outlook for 3/10/11

by EdgePlayer on 03/09/11

Todays market was another day inside the triangle.  Actually there are two now.  The outer one started on 2/22 and the inner started on Monday.  The inner one  broke down after hours on the Globex.  As of this writing (1:23am EST), price is at

1303.75 after going as low as 1301.25.  It still seems too early for the outer one to break out, but  most likely by Friday.  At this point I am looking for a bounce off  the lower trend line of the outer triangle at 1301ish? and mostly an up move tomorrow during regular hours.  Will re-evaluate at the open.

The chart reflects a roll to the Jun contract, which I will be trading tomorrow.

MTD/WTD Volume profiles

Outlook for 3/9/11

by EdgePlayer on 03/08/11

Today's market was essentially the opposite of yesterday's  -- "p" pattern vs "b" pattern -- but still maintaining the triangle pattern mentioned in yesterdays blog entry.  Probably still too early for a breakout but bounces off the trendlines can be traded with a target of the opposite trendline.  The important thing to remember is to not fade the breakout when it comes.

MTD/WTD volume profiles